How Predyvo works

How it works

Every question (forecast) has a list of possible answers, a voting deadline, a resolution criterion and a source used to determine the outcome.

Until voting ends you can cast a pick (Accuracy Points) and, independently, assign Predyks to the answer of your choice. You can change your pick and withdraw assigned Predyks until voting ends.

When voting ends, picks and assigned Predyks are locked. The question waits for resolution, after which Predyks and Accuracy Points are settled.

Methodology

• Mutual pool of Predyks: all Predyks assigned to a question form a single pool. After resolution the whole pool is shared – with no commission – among those who chose the correct answer, in proportion to the Predyks they assigned.
• If nobody assigned Predyks to the correct answer, the assigned Predyks are returned to participants.
• Percentages next to answers are each answer's share of the Predyks pool. They show the distribution of participants' collective expectations – not a probability or a guarantee of the outcome.
• Accuracy Points (PT) measure accuracy: +1 PT for a correct pick, −1 PT for a wrong one, regardless of the number of answers. A question cancelled without an outcome does not change PT. Picks do not use Predyks, and the number of assigned Predyks does not affect PT.
• We show the number of participants only above 20 people. With fewer, only the percentage share is shown with a small-sample note, and participant lists are hidden.
• Rankings: a separate PT ranking and Predyks ranking, for a day, week, month and all time. They include public profiles only; in the production version – after at least 10 settled picks (PT ranking) and 3 settled questions with assigned Predyks (Predyks ranking).

Resolution criteria

Every question has its resolution criterion and source described on its page. The outcome is set by an administrator based on that criterion. An AI-generated hint is only a suggestion for the administrator – it does not resolve the question.

Voting ends at the stated time. It may end earlier if the outcome of the event is announced or becomes publicly known.

A question may be cancelled with a stated reason – the assigned Predyks are then returned to participants.

If an outcome turns out to be wrong, an administrator can correct it, giving a reason and a source. Participants' settlements are then recalculated according to the correct outcome, and the question is labelled “Outcome corrected” with the date. Earlier records are not deleted – the correction is added to the history.

Forecast integrity

• One account can have one pick per question; picks and assigned Predyks are locked when voting ends.
• Rules (deadlines, balances, limits) are checked on the server, and every change of a Predyks balance is recorded in the wallet history.
• Questions proposed by users go to moderation and are published only after approval.
• Comments can be reported to moderators, who can hide them. Automated discussion participants (AI bots) are clearly labelled, do not assign Predyks and do not take part in rankings.
• Sign-up requires an “I'm not a robot” check, and some actions (e.g. comments, sign-in code emails) are rate-limited.

Transparency

• Each question page shows the resolution criterion, source, author, date added, voting deadline and planned settlement date.
• The history of the Predyks pool distribution is shown on the chart next to the question, and the Accuracy Points distribution in a separate panel.
• Corrected outcomes are labelled on the question, and participants whose settlement changed receive a notification.
• The Terms of Service and the Privacy Policy describe the rules for using the service and processing data.

Help center

Answers to basic questions are on the home page in the cards “What is Predyvo?” and “How does it work?”, and the detailed rules are above.

If you have a question, found a bug or want to report a problem with a question or your account – write to us using the contact form.

Go to the contact form →